JULES EMulator of ecosystem services (JEM)

To be sustainable and profitable, future landscape decisions need to consider the various services provided by ecosystems (such as timber, food, and water), as well as their responses to climate change. They are a natural protection against floods, store carbon, and are locations of cultural heritage and recreation.

There is an ever increasing need to build land use decisions upon an understanding of the integrated water and biogeochemical cycles, and rocess-based land surface models are excellent for predicting carbon, water, and surface heat exchanges between the land and atmosphere.

There is an ever increasing need to build land use decisions upon an understanding of the integrated water and biogeochemical cycles, and process-based land surface models are excellent for predicting carbon, water, and surface heat exchanges between the land and atmosphere.

There is an ever increasing need to build land use decisions upon an understanding of the integrated water and biogeochemical cycles, and process-based land surface models are excellent for predicting carbon, water, and surface heat exchanges between the land and atmosphere.

What is JULES

The UK’s community land surface model, JULES, is used in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) framework for applications ranging from climate change to weather forecasting.

JULES predicts productivity of vegetation, carbon accumulation in vegetation and soils, soil water content, runoff, and emissions of greenhouse gases from vegetation and soils – meaning it can be used for evaluating the impacts of land use change and climate change on several ecosystem services.

JULES is also used for evaluating the global carbon cycle: for example, each year JULES is used to calculate the net land sink of carbon and emissions due to land use change in the Global Carbon Project. However, in these simulations the spatial resolution (>50km) is inadequate for addressing landscape-scale issues.

Decisions on land use changes should incorporate longer timescale changes and uncertainty quantification, but the computational cost of running JULES at km-scale resolution is high. During this short project we will design and build emulators of JULES to inform future evaluation of ecosystem services related to the carbon and water cycles.

An emulator of JULES would allow for more robust statistical calculation of changes in carbon stocks and the water cycle and their uncertainty and open the way for better calibration of JULES.

Impact

The emulator will enable statistical analysis of changes in productivity that would occur due to land use change, useful for decision makers involved in land use and land management.

Link to the project page on the UKRI Gateway to Research: JEM